Monday, December 19, 2005
Poll Latest -
Tories ahead by 9%
The most recent MORI poll published in the Observer this weekend puts the Conservatives ahead by 9%.
The result puts my party on 40% with Labour at 31% and the Lib Dems down a bit on 21%.
The really good news is not this poll (which I think looks on the hight side) but that MORI is the last of the big polling organisations to publish a poll that now shows the Conservatives in the lead.
Although we have had small poll leads on past occasions the last time all the main polling firms gave us a consistant lead over Labour like this was in 1989.
Nobody is getting too excited, because even if these numbers were sustained for the four years until the next election they would still not translate into an overall Conservative majority, which might be one reason that David Cameron is appealing to Liberal Democrats for support.
Believe it or not in order to wrestle control of the House of Commons the Conservatives would need about 44% of the vote with Labour on less than 31% and the Lib Dems below 20%. Exact figures are hard because much depends on tactical voting and the effective campaigns in target seats like Torbay.
But the polling numbers support the anecdotal evidence all around us which is that sentiment is moving our way and that momentum for change is growing.