Monday, March 12, 2007
For some time now I have been saying that Conservatives need a sustained 40% or more in the popular polls before we will be taken seriously as a possible Government in waiting.
For those less obsessed with polling data than me, the situation for Conservatives has been very bad since 1992, with the party stuck in a 'range' that rarely rose above 33% of electors.
When Cameron took the reigns in 2005 there was an immediate 3% lift in the 'range' which moved from 30-33% to 33-36% - a welcome change but still not enough to make the party a credible threat to Labour.
All commentators agree that to win an outright majority the Conservatives need a lot of support because they are still so far behind in the numbers of seats we hold in Westminster - less than 200 at the moment.
We all accept that there is a lot further to go, but there have now been polls from all the major firms that put Camerons Conservatives above the important 40% threshold.
If this is sustained as the Labour leadership passes to Brown (and the surveys say that it will - indeed most who ask the question find that Brown is even less liked than Blair) we are in a very strong position as the third term of New Labour passes the half way mark.
The locals in May will be a much better 'real' test of public opinion, but I'm more than happy with our position just now.