Monday, March 12, 2007

More good news in the weekends polls

For some time now I have been saying that Conservatives need a sustained 40% or more in the popular polls before we will be taken seriously as a possible Government in waiting.

For those less obsessed with polling data than me, the situation for Conservatives has been very bad since 1992, with the party stuck in a 'range' that rarely rose above 33% of electors.

When Cameron took the reigns in 2005 there was an immediate 3% lift in the 'range' which moved from 30-33% to 33-36% - a welcome change but still not enough to make the party a credible threat to Labour.

All commentators agree that to win an outright majority the Conservatives need a lot of support because they are still so far behind in the numbers of seats we hold in Westminster - less than 200 at the moment.

We all accept that there is a lot further to go, but there have now been polls from all the major firms that put Camerons Conservatives above the important 40% threshold.

If this is sustained as the Labour leadership passes to Brown (and the surveys say that it will - indeed most who ask the question find that Brown is even less liked than Blair) we are in a very strong position as the third term of New Labour passes the half way mark.

The locals in May will be a much better 'real' test of public opinion, but I'm more than happy with our position just now.


anyonebutthetories said...

But in real polls in much of urban Britain, especially the big Northern cities, Wales and Scotland you are still getting nowhere

Marcus Wood said...

Absolutely right about Scotland but I don't agree about the rest. Although we come from an exceptionally low base our support in Northern UK cities is growing slowly although I admit, as do most of the leadership, that it is not growing far or fast enough.

Your name suggests this pleases you but clearly it doesn't please us!

You will I am certain see more gains in council and city wards in May but I would also anticipate that the Lib dems will also gain a few from Labour.

anyonebutthetories said...

'Exceptionally low base' ? How many Tories are on Manchester, Newcastle, Sheffield City Councils ? Much of the urban Midlands is hardly better either !

May your snail like 'recovery' continue !!

Torbay ? Bye thinks you are heading for a near 'clean sweep', but I think more Lib Dems will survive than you think. Still if you have the mayoralty, the executive and a backbench majority Bye will then be able to blame no-one but himself !

A Bye-led entirely Tory council would have the added benefit of making your prospects of election to Westminster even more difficult.

Linking your fortunes to Bye is something that may well backfire on you. Few people, even Tories on the council, are that enamoured by him, let alone the public.

Marcus Wood said...

I think you are pinning your hopes rather too much on the Northern Cities and Nick Bye being our downfall.

Currently we are the largest party in local Government with more councillors in office than we had in the lead up to Margaret Thatchers 1979 victory.

I expect that toal to rise substantially this May nationally an especially here in the Bay.

I look forward to a Conservative controlled council turning round the Bay economy after years of neglect.

Barrie Wood said...

You've already got a TORY council in Torbay and Nick Bye is a disaster. I'm happy for your fortunes to be linked with his and will be happy to remind voters of your support of Nick come 2009/10 !

So, I take it you'd like to re-affirm your support of Nick and the 'wonderful' job he and his fellow Tories have been doing for nearly 18 months ?! This is surely enough time in which to judge his merits ?

Oh, nice to see Norman Tebbit doubt the credentials and the vacuousness of Cameron on Dispatches last night. Cameron is Eton, Oxford, Bullingdon and not the regular 'Dave' of his media posturing.

As 'genuine' as the man he apes, Tony Blair !

anyonebutthetories said...

But you don't run any major city in the UK do you ?

Running apolitical smalltownesville is not the same as running Glasgow, Cardiff, Manchester or Newcastle is it ?