Another day, another Top Tory...

Hague meets the people of St Marychurch.

The second week of the campaign has brought with it two front bench visits and several walk-about campaign calls. On Monday we had Mark Francois, the Shadow Europe Minister with us, and I took him with us to meet residents living near Watcombe School and also to meet local businesses in the area.

Tuesday saw us in and around Goodrington shops, meeting local traders and residents and then today we were en-masse in Babbacombe and St Marychurch all day. We met shoppers in St Marychurch Precinct, and then we spent a lot of time with business owners and shopkeepers there; talking about the state of the economy and issues that affect them like business rates and the employment tax (otherwise known as employers N.I. contributions).

Shadow Foreign Secretary William Hague and Totnes Candidate Sarah Woolaston come along and in all we probably had nearly 50 supporters and activists in and around the whole area for the day.

We made a brief visit to the Conservative Club and then went on to Babbacombe shops to see people there.

There was time for a quick snack lunch at the local cafe (which was completely overwhelmed by the sudden arrival of such a large crowd - though everyone got tea and sandwiches in record time!) .

William and I met a very interesting resident who runs a language school, and she was very keen to make us aware of the potentially disastrous impact on her business of the clamp-down on student visas proposed in our manifesto. She made her case intelligently and reasonably to us both and we were left clear that any new law will need carefully drafting to protect the legitimate and very valuable foreign language teaching business.

Then there was some autograph signing, some press interviews and lots and lots of people to talk to and shake hands with (William Hague was drawing people to him like moths to a candle) with everyone saying 'Oooh my friends won't believe I have just met William Hague if I don't get a picture' we had several posed shots with passers by using their mobile phones to do as well.

I was delighted to hear from Sarah that she was inspired by my public pronouncement on foxhunting to join me, and she now becomes I think the second Conservative Candidate in the South West to rule out voting to support a repeal of the hunting ban.

And then it was time for him to go on to Newton Abbott.

All in all, a lot of fun and though I always knew he was popular, I was still amazed at just how big a popular draw William Hague is.

Campaign Progress report

Week 1

This is some of the team on Monday, before the kickoff, when the enthusiasm and the energy levels were at 100%; and as you can see, when the weather was wet and windy.
On current form I'd say energy levels are down to about 85% but enthusiasm levels are over 120% - and that is not just because the sun is shining on us.
The Conservatives opinion poll rating has steadily risen all week as Brown and his team have lurched from one self-inflicted injury to the next. Now even the talk of a hung parliament is fading; seven of the eight main polling firms top men have said in a survey today for the Independent on Sunday that they think the Conservatives will win an outright majority of between 10 and 50 seats. The odd one out, Ben Page of MORI later said his personal view was that the Tories would indeed win an outright majority; making at unanimous from the experts.
The sense of a "popular uprising", which was behind the Blair win in 1997, and in my long-held opinion needs to be there before the British will turf out a sitting Government, is most certainly present at this election in a way that was notably absent in 2005. Whenever we stand still for more than a few moments someone will come over and start telling us why it is vital for the country that we win this time; or that Brown is the worst prime minister in history, or similar.
And to my great relief there is a very clear understanding of the choice facing the electors here in Torbay - a lot of people say things along the line that 'we don't normally vote Conservative .... but the country needs a change.'
Of course all the main parties here in the Bay agree it is a simple choice here between providing David Cameron with a vital extra seat in a fresh, clean and untainted Parliament and thereby providing a new Government ready to start on the massive job of turning Britain round; or keeping the status quo with the existing MP.
We did street stalls on Saturday in Torquay and Paignton and I was reminded of old black and white film of election campaigns of years gone by. At times the stall was almost hidden behind what I can only describe as a small crowd of onlookers keen to introduce themselves and show their support; I have only been campaigning for a few years or so but I have never experienced anything like it.

Look out for our trusty battle bus, if you see it parked in your neighbourhood we are pounding pavements nearby; why not come and say hello?

Heavy Paper.

One of the omni-present features of politics is the letters and leaflets we print and deliver to voters pressing our message. Literally tons of paper is delivered in the months and weeks leading up to an election and the above photographs show one leaflet drop being sorted into walks for the volunteers to deliver.
About the only serious snag with our campaign HQ location above Paignton Conservative Club is that it is upstairs; in fact the committee room we are using in this picture is up two flights of stairs. We have sweated some serious pounds off in the last few months, I can tell you.

By now I will be astonished in everyone in Torbay has not had several leaflets from our team.
Although in common with every other political party our delivery network is not quite covering 100% of Torbay we have not had such a well organised and well manned delivery network in 'political living memory ' and certainly not since the dim and distant days of Sir Freddie.
There are several reasons why the network has built up so quickly and become so strong, partly it is because we have heavily concentrated on getting our message to voters directly since before the 2007 local elections; but mainly I think it has just been the willingness of more and more people to help us.
Every time we have planned a leaflet we have pushed the numbers ordered up; the delivery pictured above was an order of 70,000 - one for every individual voter in Torbay - and this entire drop of individually addressed letters was hand delivered by volunteers in a little over a fortnight. And unlike MP's who have a tax-funded communications allowance that allows for the posting of a lot of their propaganda, all the cost of printing and design our leaflets is covered by traditional fundraising and hundreds of small private donations.
Most people appreciate that we are keeping them informed; and the message in all of ours has been solidly positive; we are telling people what we will do, what I am all about, and why they should make us their positive choice. The feedback we have had from people about some of the other parties leaflet efforts has served to remind us what we learned in 2005; that negative campaigning, and simply attacking your opponent does not work and tends to put voters off.

If you would like copies of any of our leaflets you can email me on marcus4torbay@gmail.com and I will send you a full set.

Local Campaign Launch

The Shadow Secretary of State for Food, Agriculture and Rural Affairs Nick Herbert helped me kick off our local election campaign with a visit to Occombe Farm followed by a visit to our local headquarters in Preston yesterday.

He was impressed by the numbers and the enthusiasm of our team, and gave us a rousing speech - reminding us that this day is the beginning of a process that we all hope will lead to a change of Government. I reminded everyone that there have only been two occasions when the Conservatives have taken power from Labour in my lifetime and that May 6th is going to be the third.

And with that we were off to start another Bay-wide round of leaflet deliveries and doorstep canvassing.

I GOT THIS JOB

WITHOUT AN ELECTION,

VOTE FOR ME

(or not - I'm staying either way)

We have learned from Cabinet Secretary Sir Gus O’Donnell this week that in the event of a hung Parliament Gordon Brown will remain as Prime Minister, even if Labour is not the largest party.

Incredibly this means that Brown, the one Prime Minister who has never won an election, may remain in power even after he has lost.

Labour Cabinet Ministers may be allowed to stay in charge even if voted out of their own seats because the Civil Service fear for economic stability if the Government is in flux for just a few days.

Parliament could be suspended for weeks while behind closed doors the Prime Minister does a grubby deal to cling to power. And there is only one party he will turn to - the Liberal Democrats.

The Lib Dems will try to sit on the fence until after the election, of course - to conceal which way they will jump until it is too late for us to do anything about it. But voters are not stupid. They know the Lib Dems track record; in debates and on TV interviews the Lib Dems side with Labour every time. In Wales, in Scotland and in our British Parliament during the 1970’s Labour coalitions have always been with the Liberals.

Other parties are campaigning for your vote at this election, but none will win seats.

So it is the Liberal Democrats who are blocking the path to stability; Conservatives must win back the seats they lost to them in 1997 if David Cameron is to win a working majority - to get rid of Gordon Brown and start Britain on the road to recovery.

I did the first public meeting of this campaign yesterday, a question-and-answer session with the local hoteliers.

The issue that came up time and again was the economy. People have largely been isolated from the ‘depression’ so far - and there was the slightest feeling in January and February that we might escape the worst; in my view this goodwill was directly linked to house prices which had been rising since last summer, but the last weeks news has been about falls. This was reflected yesterday, where we all noticed a sharply downbeat attitude from the people attending the meeting concerning the economy with several questioners openly suggesting that ‘the worst is yet to come’.

What makes this interesting is the nature of the attendees. Hotel owners in March have a pretty good idea of what is coming down the line for the summer. A weak pound and increased security fears are supposed to mean lots of people holidaying at home - so if the recession was ending you might expect a bumper season this year in Torbay. If you were expecting a bumper season you would imagine the first people to know about it would be the hotel companies taking the bookings.

So why are the hoteliers so gloomy?

People have really started to notice rising retail prices, I haven’t heard this as a political issue for decades, but it is firmly on the agenda now; with people saying ‘not only is my pay being cut but the prices in the shops are rising so we just can’t afford the luxuries anymore, can you believe the price of X is now Y?’.

And they have a point. The headline rate of inflation is in the 3-4% range for the first time in years, but the figures are a mish-mash of statistics mixing bills, infrequent purchases such as furniture and clothing with daily consumer items such as food. In the real world food and petrol have been shooting up since the pound dropped last spring. Food shopping in particular is becoming painful; butter is over £1, bread headed for £1 a loaf and even a Mars Bar is now about 70p. I bought a bike magazine at the station last week and that was £4. And yesterdays falls in the value of the £ mean the price pain is set to worsen. Yet for most people their take-home pay is static or falling and has been for over a year.

Recessions initially are just news stories, shops and factories shut but if you are not immediately jobless it is of passing interest. They become a political issue when they affect how *everyone* feels. Once we feel insecure at work, the equity in our home is halved and we are poorer at the shops the recession is affecting us, and that reflects in the polls. That is now happening, the 1980 recession ended in 1981, but the feeling of prosperity and growing living standards took until 1985 to arrive; in the short-lived 1991 recession the 'green shoots' of recovery appeared in 1992, but the accompanying 'feel-good' factor was still missing until 1995.

The thing that struck me most yesterday was the recognition by people there that the Government have already emptied the armoury in trying to tackle the recession, and that if their action has failed (and people agree that it has) the outlook makes them feel very, very vulnerable because the Government has nothing left, and neither do most households.

What do you want to be when you grow up Lucy?

Lucy looked at her Dad and said "I want to be the Prime Minister."

"And why do you want to do that?" said her Dad.

"Because I want to make sure that homeless man and his dog in the doorway across the street has something to eat" says Lucy.

"That's my Girl" says her proud father, "Welcome to the Labour Party."

Lucy's mum had overheard the conversation from the other room, and not being quite such a fan of the Labour Party, she came to join the discussion.

"I have an idea" said Mum. "The garden needs weeding and the driveway needs sweeping. If you do that for me Lucy I will give you £10. Then you can go and give it to the man across the street and he can use it to buy some food for himself and his dog."

Lucy considered this offer for a few moments and then a look of puzzlement crossed her young face, and then her eyes widened with inspiration.

"Why doesn't that man come over and weed the lawn and sweep the drive himself? that way you can just give him the £10 - and he will feel better because he will have earned it?" she said, with that faultless logic children often display.

"That's my Girl," said her mother... "Welcome to the Conservative Party" .