Blackpool here we come!

We are all off to Blackpool on Sunday for the start of Conference.

Every recent conference I have been to has been billed as either 'make or break' or 'critical to our survival' and this one is no exception.

But honestly! As someone who has had to stand in front of a TV crew and defend IDS after his toe-curling 'the quiet man is turning up the volume' speech I can say that the one thing I am not concerned about is whether the event goes well -it will.

Cameron may have faults -but speaking in public isn't one of them; I am as confident as I can be that the set piece speeches will be excellent and come across very well. There are no major policy divisions and no contentious fringe meetings. I have discounted the possibility of another stupid 'stunt' by Labour - perhaps another defection for Monday for instance, and so have most of the media.

I am slightly less confident about the behaviour of one or two old Tory rightwingers but their harping protests have become so much of a tradition at Conferences that most people have become deaf to them.

One is always in the hands of the media editors - if they decide it's all about internal bickering then that is what the TV screens and newspapers will say - but I really think the media -especially the broadcast media- have swallowed enough Labour spin to give them a bit of indigestion in the last week or two and the story therefore might just be one of policy and content rather more than endless election speculation.

Of course there is the remote possibility that Brown may yet call an election next week - that might turn out to be a 'stunt' too far for many people in Britain.

We will soon find out.

How much of a Gamble is an early election?

There is still an enormous amount in the media every day at the moment about the possibility of an early election.

As a Tory candidate in a front-line LD marginal the one thing I would love to be doing next month is fighting an election - a rejuvenated Labour party and the Lib Dems down on 13% in the polls works for me in Torbay, although I accept that it's not the ideal scenario for the Conservative Party (or the country) at large.

We have all our election material written and ready to go, we have our election plan agreed, audited by Central Office and we have the money ready in my election fund.

The possibility that I could end up being an MP by Christmas instead of simply being a PPC for another 2 or more years is a deliciously tempting prospect for me.

But the gamble for Brown is one I am still very clear he won't take. The 'upside' is a five year term with a majority that -because of boundary changes and difficulties with the SNP is Scotland- would go down even with a significantly improved vote share from the 2005 36% that Labour got.

The likeliest outcome is a reduced or non-existent majority and the prospect of a John Major/Jim Callaghan style death by a dozen by-elections and the downside is the possibility of losing - as happened to Wilson when he called a snap election in 1970; which would write Brown into the history books as Britains biggest loser.

Of course Gordon Brown hasn’t decided, and he won’t decide - he’ll put it off, and delay, and wait and see for a day or two, and then just mull it over for another weekend - then see what the Sundays say, and so on until it will be too late.

What the activists in Labour are trying to do is bounce him into a place where he has to make a decision because they know what we all know, things can only get worse. they think that Gordons best chance - indeed his only chance, is to go to the country just as soon as he can.

Well, here in Torbay, we are ready for him.

Shadow Cabinet 'like buses'

You know the saying, you wait for ages for a bus and then three come along at once.

Well that has been the case in Torbay regarding front bench visits; we have been graced by the presence of two senior front benchers this week, Chris Grayling (Work and Pensions) and Francis Maude (pictured left, with me and the head teachers and pupils from Paignton Community College) who is Shadow Minister for the Cabinet Office; and then next week we have the spokesman for tourism, licensing and gambling here - Tobias Ellwood.

Front bench visits are a very important part of life as a PPC. At the basic level they are a rare opportunity for us to make the news - and the oxygen of publicity is a rare and valuable commodity and we need as much as we can get - but on a deeper level they are a chance for us to tell the shadow cabinet what is happening on the front line.

So in the quiet moments in the car, or having a coffee we can discuss the impact they are/are not having on swing voters in target seats like Torbay. This is a vital part of making sure the party remains closely in touch with all kinds of voters from all over the country.

I am pleased that the party is making such strenuous efforts to make sure we are regularily visited and I am certain that this demonstration of our commitment at the highest level will be remembered by voters.

And it's a good excuse for a day off work, too.

Is an amnesty the right answer for illegal immigrants?

The Liberal Democrats have decided on an interesting solution to the problem of illegal immigration - offering them an amnesty if they manage to stay here for ten years or more.

On one level this is a decent gesture that would solve some of the distressing cases highlighted fairly regularly in the press where a settled family are torn apart after x years living peacefully in some village somewhere when aunt Mavis turns out to be an illegal immigrant.

So I agree that greater flexibility is neccessary to deal with difficult residential applications from long-term illegal settlers - perhaps by giving family courts a decision making role; but a blanket amnesty is not the answer at all.

The experience of other countries that have tried this technique like Spain is that the level of illegal immigration attempts goes up sharply. Those intent on resettling decide that their already good chance of getting in, added to the certainty of being given citizenship if they can hang on ten years makes the destination irresistible.

Britain is already to an embarrassing degree the first choice for thousands of migrants who cross several other EU countries to get here. In my view this proposal, although made for the most humane and decent reasons, would make the problem far worse in the short term - lead to an immediate immigration crisis, and potentially invite thousands more illegal immigrants than we get already.

Polls still close - Labour lead down to 3%

There have been two more polls out this weekend, one in the Sunday Times showed Labours poll lead halving in a month to 5% (39/34/15) and another, for the Independent today puts Labour on 37% Conservatives 34% and the Lib Dems on 15%.

Nobody is celebrating these figures, they are not good enough for my party to win an election, not good enough for Labour to hold power and not good enough for the Lib dems to avoid a bloodbath of their MP's whoever wins the next election.

I am surprised that the Conservative figure is holding as well as it is, given that the electorate must surely be somewhat puzzled by the string of policy groups announcing what might seem to be conflicting ideas on a baffling array of topics from global warming to family breakdown.

The purpose and timing of these policy groups reporting was, I know, carefully choreographed to fit with the conference season.

What I am expecting over the next three or four weeks is that by the end of the conference season the fog will lift and the public will have a clear view of what we stand for and where our priorities will lie in Government. Our Conference will act as the launchpad for the Conservatives vision for Britain; which will knit together the best bits of each group in a sensible, 'joined-up' approach to solving some of our country's most intractable and pressing problems.

People will at last be able to compare and contrast a new Conservative party full of optimism and hope with a confused and demoralised Lib Dem party and a tired and distracted Labour party.

I doubt very much whether there will be any ambiguity whatsoever about which way the polls are pointing after the conference stalls have been packed away and the last satellite news van has departed down the M6.

So this is prudence is it?










I expect much comment in the Sunday press about the almost unprecedented run on the Northern Rock by their customers.

The 1929 crash was caused in part by a complete collapse of confidence by the public in their financial institutions and the regulatory authorities ability to protect them. Todays troubling pictures of anxious investors queueing up to get their cash out of their bank because they fear it going bust is, in my view, a damning indictment of both the FSA and the Bank of England.

In fact any banker will tell you that the base ingredient for a stable economy is trust, trust in the value of money and trust in the banks that store it for you; this is one reason why we like our banks to be big, boring and institutional - it's reassuring.

One of the often repeated side effects of this spin-obsessed Government is a lack of trust. People just don't believe Government ministers or even the Prime Minister to tell them the truth anymore. All Government institutions are damaged by association, threatening the entire workings of Government itself. Statistics, like the number of immigrants or the rate of inflation aren't trusted.; Policemen aren't believed like the used to be in court, government officials find their evidence scoffed at so we have a resurgence in mumps and rubella because people stopped having the MMR vaccine and so on.

When Gordon says 'the economy is fine' we don't believe him. When Chancellor Darling says 'Norther Rock is fine, your money is safe', evidently investors don't believe him, either.

LIB DEMS FACE TWO WAYS AT ONCE - AGAIN

Guess what, once again the the Liberal Democrats are demonstrating hypocrisy of the highest order, this time over the European Constitution; a law that would give a great deal more power to the EU, and reduce our right to make our own laws and foreign policy.

Pro-European Lib Dem leader Ming Campbell has now formally sided with Gordon Brown in refusing to allow the British public a say on the Constitution. “My judgment is a referendum is not necessary on this document,” he says in an interview ahead of next week’s Liberal Democrat conference in Brighton.

With the backing of the Lib Dems Gordon is now certain of enough votes to ensure that this treaty will get through Parliament without the British public having a say, in spite of having made a clear manifesto pledge that we would be given a vote.

These are the very same Liberal Democrats who make a living complaining endlessly about a lack of democracy and who demand referendums of everything from road pricing to the Monarchy.

Our local MP has himself made desperate attempts to force our directly elected mayor hold a referendum of the vital question of, er, whether Torbay has one casino or two; yet it would appear he will calmly vote to deny you or I a say in one of the most fundamental changes to our constitution since the Act of Union in 1707.

I eagerly await a logical excuse from any Lib Dem as to how they can reconcile these two opposing ideals of what is 'democratic'.. .