Thursday, September 14, 2006
Will the next Prime Minister be Gordon Brown?
It is the generally agreed view of nearly everyone in the political world that Gordon Brown is a 'done deal' to take over from Tony Blair.
I'm going on the record here and saying that I don't think he will get it.
Who would have doubted, in 1989, that the next tory leader was going to be Michael Hestletine? - Who would have believed, in 1997 and again in 2001, that the next Tory leader wasn't going to be Ken Clarke?
For those who can remember back that far, who would have questioned that the man to replace Harold Wilson was Roy Jenkins?
Even Mrs Thatcher was a rank outsider, upsetting the expected coronation of Whitelaw in 1975.
The point is the favoured candidate almost never gets elected, the only case that comes to mind was Anthony Eden eventually taking over from Winston Churchill and we all know how that ended up.
My money is on education secretary Alan Johnson sneaking through the middle as Labour members peer over the precipice and see a Gordon Brown led party being an electoral disaster and decide they want a new face, not another old one.